Rupee to benefit from oil plunge while facing technical resistance, dollar

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The rupee is expected to ⁠open in the 94.75-94.78 range, per traders, having settled at 94.90 to the dollar on Monday

By Reuters

Updated - November 03, 2026 at 08:53 AM. | MUMBAI

The Indian rupee is likely to open on firmer footing on Tuesday following ​a slide in crude oil prices, though dollar strength and technical ‌barriers are expected to contain the magnitude of ​the currency's advance.

The rupee is expected to ⁠open in the 94.75-94.78 range, per traders, having settled at 94.90 to the dollar on Monday.

Brent crude plummeted 11 per cent on Monday, ‌after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of a resolution to the US-Israeli war ‌with Iran and a stabilisation of crude supplies from ‌the ⁠Middle East. The drop held in Asia ⁠trading with Brent at $104.70.

High oil prices have been a persistent source of pressure on the rupee, with the impact extending well beyond a ​higher import bill. With ‌India importing about 90 per cent of its requirement, higher prices worsen the country's macroeconomic outlook, raise corporate currency hedging demand and weigh on foreign portfolio flows.

The Reserve Bank of ‌India has remained a constant presence in the ​foreign-exchange market to manage the pressure, selling dollars along with deploying other measures to rein ⁠to support the rupee.

"The biggest thing that can change the rupee's fortunes and provide relief is oil," a currency trader ‌at a private sector bank said, referring to the potential for sustained lower oil prices if a lasting truce is found in the Middle East.

While the rupee is likely to perform well at the open, the 94.50-94.70 range presents a significant zone for technical resistance, ‌the trader added.

Weakness across Asian currencies is another factor that could ​limit the rupee's advance beyond the initial lift. Oil-sensitive regional peers, including the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine ⁠peso, remained under pressure, suggesting investors were reluctant to buy ⁠Asian currencies amid AI-related risk aversion.

US equities dropped on Monday and futures were largely flat in Asia ‌with investors weighing possible outcomes from crucial midterm elections in the world's largest economy.

MSCI's broadest index of ​Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.8 per cent.

Published on November 3, 2026

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